Consider the "Occurrence scenario" of the Nankai Trough Earthquake [Part 5] better recovery in Japan

Disasters that can be said to be a national disaster in the declining population and aging

　There are various concepts about the probability of occurrence of the Nankai Trough Earthquake, but based on the time predictive model, the average period from the Showa earthquake to the next earthquake is 88..It is two years, and the probability of earthquake occurrence in the next 30 years is 70-80%.On the other hand, according to a estimated estimate of the National Institute of Social Security and Population, Japan's population in 2040 was about 110 million, 1..It seems that the five active generations will be a society that supports one elderly generation, and 40 % of the elderly households will be alone.According to the Japan Creation Conference, the number of municipalities, which is reduced by women in childbirth in 2010, reaches 896.

　Considering these, reconstruction from the Nankai Trough Earthquake is important to see as an opportunity to solve issues such as population decline, aging, and regional decline, and it is important to draw a better Japanese future.

Japanese militarism after the Kanto Earthquake

　The economic damage of the Nankai Trough Earthquake is said to exceed 220 trillion yen.Although it is a 40 % damage of the gross domestic product, the 1923 Kanto Earthquake was the same -scale economic damage.Therefore, I would like to see the reconstruction after the Kanto Earthquake and the changes in Japanese society.

　Before the Kanto Earthquake, Japan was in the Taisho democracy.World War I begins in 1914.In 1917, the Tokyo Bay Typhoon caused a lowlands around Tokyo Bay was hit by a storm surge disaster, causing more than a thousand victims.From 1918 to 20 years, Spanish colds were widespread around the world, and more than 400,000 people in Japan were defeated.

　Under these circumstances, the 1923 Kanto Earthquake caused more than 1005,000 victims, mainly in Tokyo and Yokohama.After the earthquake, the Imperial County Reconstruction Plan was planned, mainly in Shinpei Goto, and although the scale of the plan was reduced, the foundation of the modern city, Tokyo, was set up.Thanks to the reconstruction of the future, there is Tokyo now.I think that it was a major place to be the concept of Shinpei Goto, who experienced the mayor of Tokyo and the mayor of Tokyo, and the mayor of Tokyo.

　However, after the earthquake, natural disasters occurred, and Japanese society fell into trouble.The Kita Tajima Earthquake in 1925, the 1926 Tokachi -dake eruption, the 1927 Kitatan Togo Earthquake, the 1930 Kita -Izu Earthquake, the 1931 Nishi -Saitama Earthquake, the 1933 Showanriku, 1934 Hakodate Fire, Muroto Typhoon, etc. occurred.For this reason, the Financial Crisis, Manchuria Incident, the UN withdrawal, and the second and two six cases were finally in Japan during the 1937 and 1941 Pacific War.

Great turning point of the times

　The values of society are changing in the corona evil.Electronic conferences via communication from face -to -face conferences assuming people's movement, telework from office work, concentration from concentration, diversification from mutual dependence, moderate margin, moderate margin, moderate amount of freedom, and economic priority from economic priority to safety.I feel changes in values, from global to local.The concept of digital transformation (DX) and carbon neutral (CN) is beginning to spread.The society of information and communication and stones energy will correct the concentration of Tokyo, leading to a healthy regional development.If you can create an autonomy, distributed, and coordinated national land structure, it will overlap the path of disaster damage.

　As population declines and local migration progresses, withdrawal from urban dangerous areas will be easier.As regional revitalization progresses, we can expect to improve food self -sufficiency by utilizing the middle mountain area.As the development of solid batteries progresses, renewable energy spreads and the energy self -sufficiency rate increases.Indeed, it is an autonomous and distributed prior reconstruction plan itself.I hope that a convenient compact x network land is created in a safe place, and a green field that has come off the compact city should create an independent house that does not depend on the lifeline.

　My countryside is gradually becoming more independent by providing solar cells, fuel cells, storage batteries, wells, water purification equipment, and fields.In the future, if flying cars become widespread, you will not need to maintain roads.

Reconstruction begins from where you are ready

　If you are considering a reconstruction plan after the earthquake, it will take time to make a plan.If there is a well -prepared reconstruction plan in advance, the reconstruction budget will be taken preferentially.Conversely, if it takes time to form consensus, the number of people who leave the town will increase, which can lead to abandonment of reconstruction.It takes time for consensus formation, such as a land -based remodeling, hill relocation, embankment construction, and construction of embankments, which play an important role in the reconstruction plan.

　The basics of reconstruction town development are "If you know him and know himself, it will not be the most hundred races" and "it turns into a disaster."The place that was greatly affected is a pure white canvas, so it is an ideal chance to create a town.If you avoid dangerous places and create a strong town in a safe place, you can develop the country and society afterwards.It also triggers an industry that has lost international competitiveness due to an earthquake.Let's think about the creation of a town that will lead to sustainable developments.

History of reconstruction in Nagoya

　Nagoya, where I live, is an honorary student of earthquake disaster recovery and war disaster reconstruction.In the first place, the town of Nagoya dates back to Kiyosu in 1610, and the town has moved to the Atsuta plateau under the Kiyosu Castle.I think that the fact that the Tensho earthquake that occurred in 1586 was affected by the Kiyosu Castle on the Gotjo River, which was affected by liquefaction.Atsuta Jingu Shrine, which has a history of over 1900 years at the southern end of the Atsuta plateau, and the castle in Nagoya, which holds Nagoya Castle at the northern end, was built on a safe Hongan Strategy.Thanks to the 1707 Hoei Earthquake and the 1854 Security Earthquake, the damage under Nagoya Castle remained lightly.The Aichi Prefectural Government Building and the Nagoya City House Building, which were built in the castle, have survived the 1944 Southeast South Earthquake in 1944.It is a preliminary reconstruction honor student for the Nankai Trough Earthquake.

　Even in the revival of the war, Eiyo Ishikawa, who worked for the Nagoya Regional Committee before the war, introduced a land readjustment project in Nagoya City ahead of other cities, and Toshiuro Tabuchi, who served as Nagoya City assistant immediately after the end of the war, relocated the graveyard.A bold reconstruction plan centered on the width road has been set up, and a town in Nagoya, which has been forced to motorization society.I think that Nagoya, which deducted the Japanese manufacturing industry, was created thanks to the advanced and bold attempts of two leading urban planners in the pre -war Japan.

　Nevertheless, in the Southeast Sea Earthquake, the Municipal Municipal Municipality Factory was severely damaged, and in the 1959 Isewan typhoon, the 0m above sea level was severely damaged.

Draw a bright future using reconstruction

　We know that a major disaster will surely come in the near future.Nowadays, I would like to prepare a mechanism for reconstruction in various places, considering a big concept for better reconstruction.It is ridiculous, but for that time, administrative technical staff who are responsible for reconstruction will be placed in local governments nationwide, deciding on the opposite support municipality, deepening exchanges before the earthquake, creating a reconstruction strategy together at the time of the earthquake.How about supporting the stricken area?After the earthquake, it is a good idea to stop public works outside the disaster area and focus on the restoration and reconstruction of the affected areas to make effective use of limited construction resources.

　In addition, there is a concept of relocating the capital from Tokyo to west Japan as a symbol of reconstruction, creating a capital that takes the future, and regenerating the country.In preparation for the Kanto Earthquake to come back in a hundred years later, the east and west will change the capital every 100 years to create a new Japan.If you look at this, you can think a little brighter the future after the disaster.

　Why don't you use various heads to "turn into a disaster and become fortune"?Let's overcome the Nankai Trough Earthquake using "A -Ta -Ma" to the excitement, fun, and Makimuki.