What can be sold by 50 % per person "Great Single Era"
■ Notes are the marriage of Shunfu -tei Shota from Shinjiro
This year, "big marriage" is crowded one after another.
Many men and women instantly imagine the couples of the lower house of the House of Representatives Shinjiro Koizumi and the free announcer, Christel Takigawa, who announced their marriage (and pregnancy) in August.
However, in June, about two months ago, Ryota Yamazato and actress Yu Aoi of Nankai Candies also announced their marriage and talked about "Beauty and Beast Marriage".In the same month, Shota Shunfei, who has been through the "single nobleman" for a long time, suddenly announced on the TV program ("Laughing point" (Nippon Television)].And surprised the world.At this point, Shota's age was 59 years old.
In terms of marketing, it should be noted that "mature marriage" over the age of 50 like Shota.This is because unmarried people in their 50s have been seen as "unmarried for life (unmarried at the age of 50)" for many years.However, the government has become noticeable for the first time in the 50s, like Shota's 100 -year era, or because of Shota -san and essayist Sawako Agawa (63 years old), the first men and women who are married in their 50s have become noticeable.He said, "We will unify the name" unmarried rate at the age of 50 "in the future."
So will "mature marriage" be a future trend?
■ In 2030, about half of the population of Japan became a single person
As I mentioned two times before, marketing is important to focus on changes in "environmental factors", such as marriage, unmarried ratio and household format, 10 to 20 years later, in the future market size.So, let's predict the market for 2030 about 10 years later.
According to the data announced by Nomura Research Institute (14 years), it is thought that in Japan, about half (50 %) of the total population will be "one person" for 30 years (Chart 1).
why?Of course, it is expected that young men and women will not get married as much as now, but the upper generation does not seem to get married (mature marriage) as much as they make a big change in the market.
On the other hand, one of the "senior women" is considered to be noticeable.
Japanese women have an average life expectancy of 6-7 years than men.Moreover, many women over 65 years old are said to be married to men who are 3 to 5 years older.Therefore, in simple calculations, women (wives) are more likely to live for about 10 years.In that case, the products that can be sold in the future are likely to change.
■ The number of single households increases steadily
In the future, the number of "one person" will increase even in household forms.In 1980, more than 50 % of households in Japan where married couples live together (54).6 %), and the "single -person household (living alone)" is less than 20 % (19).It was about 8 %).
Until this time, the biggest reason was about 10-15 % of men and women in their 30s.85-90 % of men and women were married (and giving birth) as usual.
However, from the 1990s to the 00s, unmarried and divorce increased rapidly in Japan.The "single household", which was less than 20 % in 1980, reached just over 30 % in 2015 and less than 40 % in 2040, which is expected to be almost the same as a marriage couple (2018 National Social Security.Population Research Institute, "Future estimation of the number of households in Japan").
■ 15 years from the boom per person
If so, I don't think that "compact size" and "small" items for one or two families are more likely to sell more than "large (large capacity)" foods that are conscious of 4 to 5 families in the future.mosquito?
In April 2004, I wrote my first book, "Older" Market "(Nihon Keizai Shimbun Publisher).The following year, the so -called "one -by -one boom" occurred, and for 15 years, we have been covering the transition of the market alone.
Under such circumstances, I co -authored on August 21 this year ["Why is a woman attracted to Mercari and a man attracted by Yahoo auction?(Kobunsha Shinsho)] is one of the newly covered products is the Ebara food "Petit Seasoning" series.
This is a good example of recent or family's "individual meals (each family's person eating personally)".The lineup of the series is 28 items, and the total sales in the series will be 3.5 billion yen (as of March 19).
■ Incorporates the needs of “time difference families”
The biggest feature is that each of them is a "potion" (individual packaging) seasoning that is used for coffee milk and gum syrup. Each person can select the favorite seasoning each time and use it from the potion container.
According to Fumiko Ito of the marketing department, one of the people who was involved in the development of the "Petit and Seasoning" series such as "Petit and Nabe", "Most of the nabe soup products for home, most of the competitions, including competition.It was assumed to be for 3-4 people. "
However, as mentioned earlier, the percentage of single men and women who do not get married has increased rapidly in recent years.In addition, even for family households with children and children, there are more "time difference families" such as being able to return home by both parents, working on a shift, or not easily returned in club activities or cram schools.I am.
■ I am dissatisfied with the pot
In the group interview with consumers that Mr. Ito and his colleagues, there were many problems such as "I can't use pouch soup in a small number of households," and "I get tired of eating the remaining pots every day."It seems that it has become.
In a private survey, women in their 20s (married), who have only one or less than one or two days a week (married), have about 40 % of the total (2017 Better Home Association).
At this time, Mr. Ito and his colleagues revealed that they had dug up again, "Is there a demand for this market (individual food)?"He realized that it was.
■ Just replace the container to innovate.
If they thought, "I only need to keep out the conventional products in the future," and if I didn't look at the new market, I might not have noticed the unexpected customers.However, not only today, but also the potential of the future and the individual food market, and deepening consumers' dissatisfaction, it would have been possible to create a new hit product.
On the other hand, if you look at it, you can say that "Petit and Nabe" is "just replaced" into a conventional hot pot soup into another type of container called potion.
However, it is a container, but a container.President Ebara Food President Miyazaki said in response to an interview that "seasoning is" innovated "with containers and capacity."He said, "I proposed a new value by putting the seasoning in a potion for one person" ("DCS Online" published on August 1, 2017).
■ Innovation comes from existing ones
What is innovation in the first place?In 1911, Economicist, Austrian economist, Schnopeter, who is said to have defined innovation for the first time, called innovation "new bonds."
Specifically, the groundbreaking ideas and excellent technologies create socially significant "completely new values".The concept is that the existing A is linked to B in a completely far away world, rather than the empty zero.
In recent years, the best examples are fast fashion such as smartphones, H & M, free communication application "LINE", or robot vacuum cleaner "Rumba" (Irobot).
■ You don't have to be "surprisingly groundbreaking"
Rumba is equipped with excellent "spatial recognition" technology.This technology is a technology for military robots (reconnaissance and explosive processing, etc.), originally owned by Irobot from the United States.By "newly binding" the technology and vacuum cleaner, it created a completely new value, "the vacuum cleaner moves around the room and cleans it."
The previous "Petit and Seasoning" series also escaped from the conventional concept of "pots are eaten by the whole family" and "hot pot soup is sold in large -capacity pouch containers", and "coffee milk etc.It can be said that it has led to a huge hit after that, because it embodies the idea of putting it in, putting it in a full -fledged potion? "
Yes, even if you don't always have "surprisingly groundbreaking technology", innovation can be caused.The important thing is the ability to calmly predict a future market different from the old market.Or, the power to doubt, "Is it possible to say so in the future?"And, "Isn't it possible to have such a" new combination "?"
---------- Megumi Ushikubo Marketing Writer Born in Tokyo in Tokyo.She is a marketing company Infinity Representative Director.She got her master's (business management / MBA) at Rikkyo University Graduate School.She is a member of Doshisha University and Big Data Analysis Study Group.She is a member of the Ministry of Finance, Finance System, etc., a Cabinet Office and the Economic and Financial Advisory Council.Her book is "The" one person "Market that the man knows" and "Listen to the single prince!(Both Nihon Keizai Shimbun Publishers), "The herbivorous boys" young lady "change Japan" (Kodansha), and "Youth who do not love" (Discover 21).---------------
(Marketing Writer Megumi Ushikubo = ISTOCK.COM image provision = Ebara food)