2020s.How does technology, society and life change?
Maybe Nomad life is the standard for young people with a camper.
I guess the end of the year has already been heard, or it's a short time in the 2020s.In the past 10 years of technology and science relations, there are various things, such as the spread of smartphones with tremendous momentum, and the cars are moving on their own, and it has become convenient or a little anxious, but next.What will happen for 10 years?
Gizmodo's George Dvorsky has heard the predictions of experts in each field.
Now that the 2010s are on, it's time to look forward to the next 10 years.In the 2020s, there were various topics, such as the development of AI, the automation of everything, responding to environmental problems, and the use of powerful genetic modification technology, but what would happen to the world when these came all at once?mosquito?
Everyone can say that AI is deprived of work, designer baby is born, and it can be said in the future, but when you ask an expert, you can see a little more trends.I will summarize such a large tide below.
New industrial revolution
First of all, what I've been worried about is that AI has evolved and various jobs are automated and human work is deprived.Certainly, in the next 10 years, it is certain that working people around the world will be disrupted by AI and robot technology.
For example, the 2018World Economic Forum report shows that 75 million jobs will be lost by 2022 as a result of automation.But the report also expects that 133 million jobs will be created, not just losing work.In other words, as a result, the work of 58 million people is expected to increase.
This means that a considerable number of people will change jobs, and they will need to re -learn or move, and they will need to make various adjustments.Instead of choosing AI or humans, it would be a big trend for humans and AI to work together.
The author of "GHOST FLEET" and "LIKEWAR" and the writer who will publish "Burn-in: A novel of Real Robotic Revolution" soon.W.Singer says that it should be noted from the viewpoint of robotics revolutions rather than robots.
"We are now entering the era of the Industrial Revolution, similar to the birth of steam organizations and factories," Singer explained by email."Automation and AI waves have rushed to all fields of society, and are applied from farms to families to battlefields. Humans are absolutely impossible to make it possible to make it possible to make it impossible for himself.Yes. "
If some kind of job is replaced by robots and AI, the main reason is economical.As a manager, if you can save money with auto motion, you will consider it, even if you know that it will eliminate employees as a result.
Singer says that human beings have already forgotten the pain of the first industrial revolution.In fact, as new technologies have spread to society, work and roles begin to collapse in the workplace, and in the elections, voting actions are induced to various thoughts, and legal and ethical difficulties have been raised in all situations.Politics and ideology are born.The next revolution has already begun.
"Please remember. The previous industrial revolution has created ideology, such as socialism, communism, and fascism that will cancel over a century from the concept of modern capitalism," said Singer.
A society that adapts to the next "normal"
Just as all movements have a reaction, we will adapt to changes in society and technology, recover, and see how to fully use them.It seems that it is necessary to adapt to new ways of working, changes in social and economic power relationships, houses that have never been considered before, and transportation.
Roman YAMPOLSKIY, an AI researcher at Louisville University, says that the difference between humans and machines will only open over the next ten years.
"Machines will be able to operate a car without human supervision, generate news articles that grabbing the heart, and automatically process various jobs, such as basic secretary -like work and investment," he said.YAMPOLSKIY."As a side effect of the evolution, the gap between humans and machines will increase." In other words, AI is more smarter than humans, which is not a nice thing for humans.
カナダの大手法律事務所・McMillanのプライバシー・データ保護グループとサイバーセキュリティグループの共同議長を務めるLyndsayWasser氏によると、自動運転車、またはAV（Autonomous Vehicles）の普及の影響は｢甚大｣です。
"Unemployment is inevitable due to many industries. It will affect not only taxis and trucks that are directly affected by AV, but also related industries such as automobile insurance, gas stations, and parking."Is explained by email.
The wide spread of AV is said to change the approach to people and home transportation.
"In the near future, the cost of AV owners will be difficult to reach for the low and medium -sized basis," said Wasser.Many consumers should see off their own AV and choose a system that shares AV with other families.The advantages of AV are said to be a lot of risks, such as improving safety and providing transportation to those who cannot drive, but there is also a great risk.In particular, if a malicious hacker or cyber terrorist takes control of the car, it can be a weapon.The huge amount of data created by AV also leads to serious privacy infringement.Critics and politicians have stated that they should be industrial self -regulation, but some governments and local governments may establish any laws that regulate autonomous cars.""
Sarah Kaufman, a NYU Rudin Center for Transportation director, also believes that AV will be the highlight of the 2020s.
"Everybody and things will move as a car squad (FLEET)," says Kaufman."Taxi, courier service, motorcycles and drones move as part of the vehicle controlled as a whole. Nobody has a car in a large city. People move as part of a large intellectual network.The network tracks the user's schedule, mood, physique, and what you want for movement, and matches the vehicles that match it. "
Mr. kaufman said, for example, smartphones, "You ate too much pizza last night, so please go to work today by bicycle."Please use SUV. "
Kaufman predicts that all cars on the street detect each other and move perfectly to avoid collisions and conflicts.Therefore, individual movements are slower than they are now, but they say "safely, according to the needs of the user".
Kaufman predicts that the house has changed dramatically in the 2020s, and that many people live in cars.
"The 21st century camper will have a fixed area of the city," says Kaufman."The camper is a new home office. The younger generation has no economic power to buy a permanent house, more people work freelance and can be anywhere on the Internet.Is an office, and vice versa. "
These mobile pioneers in the 2020s move regularly like a rolling stone, may be the time to avoid disasters and bad weather due to climate change, and are new to the desert.It may be a music festival."New houses, offices and camping cars will enable Noma Drife, which will bring a new life into the city. While returning the flow of people, we will experience the unprecedented camping car life.""
Deep fake, human hack ... Technology of fear
"The AI -generated fake news and deep fake videos are no longer just a bit of a human being, even if they try to distinguish them," says Yampolskiy."This is not only a blow to our democracy and the unity of society, but also in privacy, safety, and security. The advanced chatbot has been personalized using real and memorable voices.Large -scale social engineering attacks, aiming for billions of users by making full use of profiling, will explode. "
Singer is foreseeing the rapid increase in hacking for human consciousness, not computer network.He makes full use of likes, share, and bright red lie to spread ideas to virals.According to Singer, Russia's intervening in the 2016 US presidential election was an experiment on how far the hacking work could be done, and the result was that it was "successful and effective."
In the 2020s, it is likely that such countries such as the United States, which are the targets of hacking, will be an experiment on whether they can overturn the opponent's reading and push them back.What is required is that companies (such as Facebook and Twitter) will be more responsible for harmful powers on their own platforms, and "democracy is threatened by digital threats.Singer says that he wants to protect his strategy to protect himself better. "
However, in the 2020s, hackers are more and more powerful in AI, so it is not easy to push them back.
Finn Brunton, an associate professor who specializes in media culture communication at New York University, foresee two technologies in the near future.
"The first is a technology that creates almost or all synthetic videos. There is a deep fake as its early product, but such technologies are rapidly cheaper and easier.Combined with a very small target, it means that you can make custom targeting videos to some extent on -demand, even if you are only once. It goes without saying that the same image is easy, "said Brunton.
Some of these fake may be rough, but Brunton expects many people.
According to Brunton, this trend is "intensifying with subcultures and consensus that accelerates bots and algorithms."Those who want to manipulate public opinion do not work on Twitter, but rather, "creating, strengthening, and amplifying a small isolated subculture will be wider and will lead to the direction they want."BRUTON is expecting."This trend is a precursor to the birth of a new military cult. It may be armed with a DIY drone bomb etc..The cult blows out from the individual, "said BRUTON, but his back is cold ...
I personally believe that in the 2020s, a major politician or some important person will be killed by a remote control or autonomous flight type drone.The use of such autonomous murder machines in the war and whether such devices can exist in the first place will be a debate of the hundred families.
Evolution of artificial psychic and AI bubble burst
The evolution of AI is becoming more and more difficult to predict, and the behavior is sometimes incompetent and incomprehensible.YAMPOLSKIY says that not only ordinary people but also experts can not understand AI, and this AI Black Box problem is likely to be a major theme in the 2020s.
The challenge of elucidating the whole picture of why AI concludes is thought to be only growing in the future, and it is likely that humans will eventually be removed from the AI decision.If that happens, the problem may be greater, and more miserable things may happen.
In the context of the danger of AI, general -purpose artificial intelligence, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), artificial super intellectuals and ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) tend to be a hot topic, but it is very unlikely that they are in the 2020s.。That is not completely denied.
AGI is an artificial intelligence that has a wider range of abilities as well as a specific ability (for example, poker and chess).AGI is, so to speak, adaptive, flexibility, power, not the same as human intelligence.On the other hand, ASI is one or more intelligent than human -level intelligence, far exceeding human beings, especially in speed, power, performance, and reach.AGI may be able to control, but it is still unknown whether humans can control it when ASI appears, and it is very troublesome.AGI may not appear in the 2020s, but you should be prepared to come at any time.
It is known in 1999 that Furistic Ray Kurzweil predicted that "it will not come out until around 2045 to 2050" in 1999.I think the possibility is that much.If it suddenly appeared in the 2020s, it would be necessary to have a ridiculous technical leap, such as a cognitive scientist or computer scientist suddenly came up with a magical equation that could be created in AGI and ASI.
But if AGI is born, the ability to emulate the human brain and move complex algorithms will increase, so it should not be so spacious to the ASI.What is a little scary here is that these next -generation machine designers will be artificial intelligence, not humans.ASI can create yourself.
That's why in the 2020s, social awareness of powerful AI dangers will increase rapidly.In the 2010s, the difficulty of environmental protection and climate change was attracting attention, but it feels like that.Douglas Vakoch, a space biologist in a president of METIGING TO EXTRA-TERRESTRIAL INTELLIGENCE, just translated to outside the global intelligence)I feel more threatened, and we will be afraid that our technology will surpass ourselves and even destroy them. "
On the other hand, Jaan Talinn, a co -founder of Skype's founding members and Centre for the Study of EXISTENTIAL RISK (direct translation: existing risk research center), said that the next 10 years were "dramatically different from the past ten years.I don't think. "
"I anticipate that technology backbones in the 2020s will be a gradual improvement of some basic and commercial value. For example, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and AI," says Talinn."However, considering the potential risks of future technology, you should not be satisfied with the analysis of the possibility that it will occur. Even if the possibility is low, it should be considered."
The concerns of Talinn's concerns about it in the 2020s include some sudden breakthroughs, the runaway of AI, the abuse of artificial organizations, and the miniaturization of technology.Translation: Terrorist, etc.) is possible to make a new means that deals large -scale damage without claiming.
"The 2020s will probably be the last 10 years we can control AI," said YAMPOLSKIY."As the ability of AI increases, our daily lives depend on it deeply."
Robin Hanson, an associate professor at the University of George Mason, and a researcher at Oxford University Future of Humanity Institute, has a slightly different prediction.In the 2020s, he believes that his interest in AI will decrease slightly than now.
"I have had a big ups and down cycle to automation and concerns about AI, and now it seems to be approaching the end of the fourth cycle from the peak of the 1930s."Was talked by email."So the simple expectation for the next 10 years is to recognize that this cycle has exceeded its peak.It will be. AI -related conference, startups, and less students will take AI departments.
However, Hanson also predicts that the next cycle will come around 2050.
Hack the earth
AI threats are likely to increase in the 2020s, but the climate change is the same.Unfortunately, in the 2020s, natural disasters such as thermal waves, drought, rising seawater, storms, floods, wildfires, and more, and uncomfortable and inconvenient situations without disasters became more frequent.It seems.
The world's countries have set target values such as reducing carbon dioxide emissions to prevent climate change, but it is very likely that the status quo will continue without protecting it.The United States has left the Paris Agreement, which is an international agreement, but on behalf of such numerical management, it begins to try to manage the environment with future (but risks) technology.It will be.
The proposed techniques include the technology that enhances the reflectivity of the clouds, the construction of a huge reflector in outer space, the number of organisms that absorb carbon dioxide by flowing nutrients into the sea, and the aerosol in the stratum (fine.There are techniques that inject particles) to reflect sunlight.The problem of these methods called "geo engineering" (global engineering) is that it may fail and make the environment worse, and once you start, you cannot stop.Nevertheless, in the 2020s, signs of attempts to try geo engineering and specific methods will be actively discussed.
Of course, the possibility is that the world may work together to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.According to the special fellow Jamais Cascio of Institure for the Future, even if the target value is achieved, the effect does not seem to come out immediately.Such a phenomenon is called "climate delay".
"The difficulty of climate problems that begins to face the next 10 years is delayed. Technically, it is a" history phenomenon ", that is, there is a time lag before it affects the temperature after the carbon emissions are reduced.Cascio."Heat inertia, soil carbon, and the overall complex system will delay the temperature reaction to the carbon level.It is likely that the rise will continue. "
Cascio points out that this is an environmental issue and a political issue.
"If the people have to agree to change their lives at the expense of something, but if they can't get the results, what can politicians say?"。"It is rarely effective to say," It may have been worse. "" Please believe, your children will surely be happy. "
Better, powerful biotech
Biotechnology continues to evolve in the 2020s.It seems that it will take one or two generations before the birth of a designer baby, which has been recombined, but there should be important progress in the next 10 years.In several countries, such as the United States, it is possible to recreate human embryo gene for experimental purposes, but it is a condition to destroy cells within a few days after the experiment.It is unlikely that this limit will change in the 2020s, but the situation may be different in the 2030s.
Personalized medical care or precision medical care is likely to appear in 2020.Personalized medical careers create treatment and treatment according to the needs of the patient, whether in their patient's illness, inheritance, environment, and lifestyle.It is mainly performed through genetic analysis, and AI will be active here as well.Machine learning algorithms find patterns from huge data, and medical workers make treatments adjusted for individuals.
CRISPR, a genetic editing tool, will continue to create waves in the next 10 years and will be a hot topic.
Jennifer Doudna, a co-inventor of CRISPR-CAS9 and a biochemist at California University Berkeley School, said in the next 10 years, "CRISPR has created new drugs and approaches for individuals, and a sickle-like red blood cell disease and cystic fiber.The treatment of very difficult gene diseases, such as diseases, may be healed. "In agricultural -related, researchers apply CRISPR to "make a more nutritious and groped crop, or to create a" genetic drive "to control the propagation of infectious diseases such as malaria and zika virus.I'm predicting it.
"Gene Drive" is a method that is effective for more widely inherited a specific gene.In the 2020s, the first case may appear for the purpose of genetic operation of wildlife groups such as mosquitoes.However, in order to expand such a wide range of applications with responsibility, Doudna says, "It is essential to continue public discussions on how to use and regulations."
The appearance of the new universe, and the humanity in it
In the 2020s, the understanding of the universe and maybe the understanding of extraterrestrial life forms will be dramatically improved.Next-generation telescopes, such as James Webb Space Telescope and European super-large telescopes (e-ELT), will definitely redefine our knowledge of our galaxies.According to VAKOCH above, the evolution of computing is likely to play a role in boosting extraterrestrial focus.
"Our sky exploration, who is looking for an intellectual living form by sifting an obviously artificial wireless signal from the radio waves of the universe, will be accelerated in the future," says Vakoch."By the end of the 2020s, humankind will finish 1 million stars near the earth. If you can explore it, if you are trying to contact us because of the existence of extraterrestrial livelihoods, it is actually discovered.He has a chance to do it. "He added:"I have never had such a high probability of whether we are the only intellectual living form in the universe."
That's why in the 2020s, it seems that very good, very bad, and strange things are coming.It doesn't seem bored.